http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/10 2026-04-06T08:42:11Z 2026-04-06T08:42:11Z Md. Al-Hasan http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2525 2019-03-13T10:02:55Z 2017-09-26T00:00:00Z

Do Social Safety Net Programs Increase Calorie Intake in Bangladesh? Evidence from Household Survey Data Md. Al-Hasan Do Social Safety Net (SSN) programs increase household’s calorie consumption? To answer this question, we employ Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 data from Bangladesh covering 12241 households. Our overall result is that the SSN programs do not significantly affect household’s calorie consumption especially for the people whose calorie consumption is lower than required. This finding remains robust even after matching for economic and demographic factors. These results are not surprising since the SSN programs are highly fragmented and emerge as a somewhat ad hoc fashion to meet the needs of an ongoing economic or social crisis caused by an exogenous shock. This paper also finds that income is not robustly related to calorie consumption but living area and household’s size are strongly linked to calorie consumption. JEL Classification: H 55, C21, C31, H31 This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

2017-09-26T00:00:00Z Shafiquddin, Raisa http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2117 2019-03-13T10:02:22Z 2016-12-20T00:00:00Z

A Markov-Switching Model of Taka/Rupee Exchange Rate: estimation and forecasting Shafiquddin, Raisa This study considers the validity of a (modified) monetary exchange rate model between monthly Bangladeshi Taka and Indian Rupee exchange rate in a Markov-switching framework. To reflect the beginning of the floating exchange rate regime by Bangladesh Bank, the sample period spans from May 2003 to March 2016. Empirical results lend support for Markov-switching model in capturing the long swings in the observed exchange rate. The results also show that various monetary fundamentals (i.e., interest rate differential, inflation rate differential, money growth differential, and trade balance) are statistically significant determinants of Taka-Rupee exchange rate. It then conducts several out-of-sample forecasting performances of the Markov-switching monetary model against a random walk model. A rolling window Markov-switching model generates better forecasts than a random walk. Policy implications of the results are also discussed. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

2016-12-20T00:00:00Z Salma, Ummah http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/2030 2019-03-13T10:01:49Z 2016-08-22T00:00:00Z

Forecasting Remittance Inflows in Bangladesh Salma, Ummah In Bangladesh remittance plays the role of central force in the economy by Contributing in Import payment, pays foreign loans and development sector. Bangladesh is the eighth biggest remittance recipient country in the world. Remittance inflows contributed around 8.2% of the GDP in 2014, which more than offset the trade balance. As of 2015, remittance inflows stood over $15 billion. According to (world bank, 2016), international migrants' remittances provide a lifeline for millions of households in developing countries at more than three times the size of development aid and migrants hold more than $500 billion in annual savings. Together, remittances and migrant savings offer a substantial source of financing for development projects that can improve lives and livelihoods in developing countries. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

2016-08-22T00:00:00Z Kazi, Abrar Hossain http://dspace.ewubd.edu:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/1621 2019-03-13T10:01:19Z 2015-12-19T00:00:00Z

Impact of Ramadan on Global Raw Sugar Prices Kazi, Abrar Hossain The effect of annual religious event of Ramadan on raw sugar prices is the central theme of this research. This research investigates whether incremental demand for sugar due to sugar-based diet in Ramadan influences global raw sugar prices. The impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar price was estimated using a modified seasonal ARIMA model with four dummy and fractional indicator variables separately to represent Ramadan and its intensity. The study used monthly raw sugar price data (ICE contract no. 11) for thirty-four years from January, 1981 to January, 2015 to ensure that the sample size covered beginning of Ramadan on every Gregorian month. The results revealed that there was a significant impact of Ramadan on global monthly raw sugar prices as raw sugar prices grew by approximately 6.06% on account of Ramadan. This was later also supported by an estimated Unobserved-Components Model on raw sugar price series. Growth in monthly raw sugar prices from this model was found to be approximately 6.82% which ensures robustness of results from ARIMA model. These results also revealed price increase to be anticipatory as raw sugar prices began to rise one month prior to Ramadan and continued till the end of Ramadan. However, the rise in monthly average price during Ramadan was dependent on the intensity of Ramadan in a Gregorian calendar month. These results will help policy makers in countries with dense Muslim population to strategize on timing bulk raw sugar procurement for consumption during Ramadan. The results are also useful to sugar refiners and traders who require better visibility on price movements while assessing the needs for availing commodity price derivative products to mitigate commodity price risk. Furthermore, this methodology can act as a framework to assess impact of events such as Ramadan, whose recurrence is not based on Gregorian calendar, on other time series variables such as commodity prices, inflation, exchange rates etc. This thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Social Science in Economics of East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

2015-12-19T00:00:00Z